Recession? What Recession?

Like I was sayin… it’s all in the numbers.  The results for first quarter GDP growth came out today indicating that the economy is not in a recession.

Although the results were weak, the 1st quarter posted a 0.6% gain in GDP  which is the same results for the 4th quarter of 2007.

For several months, the media has been proclaiming that we are in a recession.  This is echoed by those politicians that would benefit from the U.S. economy being in a recession.  Several weeks ago, presidential hopeful Barack Obama accused Bush of being oblivious to the fact that we are in a recession and that he was pushing policies that would do nothing or make it worse.  Seems now that his statement that everybody knows we are in a recession was somewhat inaccurate.

The economy is far away from some of the stellar results between 2003 and 2006 and could very well move into a recessionary period in the 2nd and 3rd quarters.  I for one am hopeful that this doesn’t happen or at least hope for it to be a quick and shallow one. 

Obama Dumps Wright

Like I was sayin… some times you have to keep your enemies close and your friends farther away.  Today, presidential candidate Barack Obama strongly denounced his preacher and his recent comments in an attempt to distance himself from his spiritual adviser.

Earlier this week, Wright seemed to be emboldened by Obama’s lack of condemnation of his remarks as he spoke before the the press.  During his performance, he stuck by his assertions that the U.S. is an imperialist nation, that the U.S. invented the AIDS virus as a means of minority genocide, and stated that Obama came out against some of his remarks only because he has to say such things as a politician.

Today in a speech Obama voiced a strong condemnation for the comments by Wright:

“I am outraged by the comments that were made and saddened by the spectacle that we saw yesterday,”

Obama then went on to distance himself from his now former preacher:

“What became clear to me is that he was presenting a world view that contradicts who I am and what I stand for,” Obama said. “And what I think particularly angered me was his suggestion somehow that my previous denunciation of his remarks were somehow political posturing. Anybody who knows me and anybody who knows what I’m about knows that I am about trying to bridge gaps and I see the commonality in all people.”

One has to wonder why he waited so long before coming out against the comments of Wright.  Did his advisers suddenly get through to him, was it the loss in PA, or was it the advice of Dick Morris?  Or was it that the reverend decided to come out and further hurt Obama by association?  More than likely it was a combination of all of the above.

However, did Obama’s condemnation come too late?  Nationally, things have become a little tighter in the Clinton / Obama race since Clinton’s PA win.  Will be be interesting to see if this recent effort to distance himself from Wright will have any impact on the polls and future primaries.

Supreme Court Upholds Voter ID Law

Like I was sayin… sometimes common sense wins out.  Today the supreme court ruled that states can require voters to produce a photo id in order to properly identify themselves before voting.

In a 6-3 ruling, the court upheld the Indiana law requiring voters to identify themselves with a photo id before voting.  Breyer, Ginsburg, and Souter were the dissenting judges joining Indiana democrats and the ACLU opposing the law.  The opposition claims that the law deprives citizens of their constitutional right to vote.

In issuing an opinion, Justice Scalia said the following:

“The universally applicable requirements of Indiana’s voter-identification law are eminently reasonable. The burden of acquiring, possessing and showing a free photo identification is simply not severe, because it does not “even represent a significant increase over the usual burdens of voting.’”

In the dissenting opinion, Justice Souter claimed that the Indiana law:

“threatens to impose nontrivial burdens on the voting rights of tens of thousands of the state’s citizens.”

The ACLU claimed that requiring IDs would put an undo burden on poor and minority voters as they would have to acquire IDs.  They further stated that it was an attempt to stop the poor, the elderly, and minorities from voting.  However, Indiana provides free state photo ids to those that can not afford them.

20 states already require voters to provide identification before voting.

 

 

Hillary Admits Obama Can Win

(April 16, 2008 ) – Like I was sayin… some people can’t make up their minds.  For several months part of Hillary Clinton’s argument about why she should be the Dem nominee is that she had a better chance than Barack Obama at beating the presumptive Republican nominee John McCain.

The facts are somewhat different.  For several months, many polls show McCain beating Clinton by as many as 12 points.  Other polls have shown Clinton winning by as many as 5 percentage points.  Currently, the Real Clear Politics average has has McCain up by 2.6%

The same polls show McCain over Obama by as many as 6 points, but with Obama over McCain by as many as 12 points.  The current Real Clear Politics average has Obama over McCain by 0.6%

The raw numbers show Obama with a better chance of beating McCain than Clinton.  However, a convincing argument can be made that both the Dem candidates are in a statistical tie with John McCain.

Tonight in the first Dem debate in several months, Clinton stated when asked if Obama could win in the fall, “Yes, yes, yes”.

It would seem that over the last few weeks when given the chance, the Dem candidates often weaken their own argument as to why they should be the Dem nominee.

At one point, Obama was almost assured the Dem nomination.  However, his recent statements about small town voters have hurt him and will force uncommitted super delegates to look again at Clinton.  The next few weeks should prove to be interesting in the race for the Dem nomination.

McCain Calls for Tax Holiday

(April 15, 2008 ) – Like I was sayin… I can use a few more holidays.  GOP presidential candidate John McCain is calling on congress to have a gasoline tax holiday from Memorial Day to Labor Day.

The proposal would eliminate the 18.4 cent per gallon federal tax on gasoline and the 24.4 cent per gallon on diesel fuel.  He also called to release oil from the strategic Petroleum Reserve to further ease gas prices.  The democrat party will most likely be against it either because they will call it reckless or they will say it doesn’t go far enough (you heard it hear first…).

Note also that the democrats also have outlined a proposal to increase the gasoline tax by 50 cents.  However, they won’t push for it until after the elections.

The announcement came as part of McCain’s detailing some of his economic plan.  Some of the other details are as follows:

–Raise the tax exemption for each dependent child from $3,500 to $7,000.

–Require more affluent people — couples making more than $160,000 — enrolled in Medicare to pay a higher premium for their prescription drugs than less-wealthy people.

–Offer people the option of choosing a simpler tax system with two tax rates and a standard deduction instead of sticking with the current system.

–Suspend for one year all increases in discretionary spending for agencies other than those that cover the military and veterans while launching an expansive review of the effectiveness of federal program.

Note that both Senators Clinton and Obama are for reducing the child tax credit from $3,500 to $3000 as part of their massive tax increase they refer to as “elimininating the Bush tax cuts”.

Voters need to keep in mind that the economic plans of the candidates impact them by either lowering their tax bill or increasing it.

It will be interesting to see how many people come out against lowering gas prices by eliminating the tax temporarily.

Sure Obama is an Elitist, but that isn’t the Point

(April 12, 2008) – Like I was sayin… sometimes you don’t see the forest through the trees.  Everybody has been jumping on Barack Obama this weekend for his comments at a CA fundraiser.  However, many are missing the point.

Obama was speaking about people in small towns in PA and described them as bitter.  And went on to indicate that because they are bitter, they form the voting habits that they do.

“And it’s not surprising, then, they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”

Obama also elaborated on why those small towners vote the way they do:

“And so people don’t vote on economic issues, because they don’t expect anybody’s going to help them. People are voting on issues like guns, are they going to have the right to bear arms. They vote on issues like gay marriage. They take refuge in their faith and their community and their families and the things they can count on. But they don’t believe they can count on Washington.”

Obviously he is missing the point on the right to bear arms and illegal immigration.  People don’t feel strongly about those issues because of their “bitterness”.  People do not also embrace religion because they are bitter.  Many people believe that the constitution gives them the right to bear arms and don’t believe people like Obama should be able to pass laws to take their guns away.  He believe that if only the government did a better job of providing, people would be more willing to give up their constitutional right to bear arms or practice religion.

He also doesn’t get the point on illegal aliens.  People aren’t mad that illegal are taking their jobs, but are mad that they are taking our benefits of being Americans for free by getting free health care and education.

However, while people are jumping on the bandwagon to condemn his statements, they miss the overall point he was trying to make.  According to Obama, the reason people are bitter is because they can’t count on Washington to solve their problems.  He believes that people are frustrated because the government doesn’t come in and fix all their problems and that is exactly the type of Washington that he wants to build.

You see, he feels that when some people don’t have enough, the government must take away from some to provide for those less fortunate.  Even his wife said so recently.  He believes that the country can’t be great until everybody is dependant upon the government and the government delivers.

People like Obama don’t believe that it is hard work that made America great.  Those of us that have become successful take advantage of others and use the “rigged” system against them.  And he wants to fix that.

I for one don’t want to have to count on Washington, but would rather count on myself.  I don’t need the government to help me, but I need the government to get out of my way and let me succeed.

Cleaning the Air by Cleaning Out Your Wallet

(April 11, 2008 ) – Like I was sayin… somebody has to pay for it.  I like to believe that I am at least a little green.  I do my part by recycling, watching water consumption, etc…  I’ll even by an alternative fuel vehicle as soon as they are comparable with gasoline powered vehicles in both performance and price.

Most Americans support legislation to help the environment, but many don’t understand the impact to them personally.

There is been a lot of press recently about the “America’s Climate Security Act of 2007″ (S. 2101)introduced by Lieberman (I-CT) and Warner (R-VA).  The bill sounds sensible enough.  It seeks to combat global warming (more on that later) by instituting a cap and trade system.  Under a cap and trade system, caps for the maximum amount of CO2 are set.  Companies producing less than a certain amount can sell their excess to companies producing over the cap.  There are also fines for producing over the cap or the cap plus what you have purchased.  The idea is that it incents companies to reduce emissions.

One of the drawbacks that most people don’t understand is that companies that pay extra fees, fines, or taxes just don’t turn on their printing presses to pay the extra money, they pass the cost on to the consumer.  One of the impacts of the bill will be to raise the cost of energy which will be paid directly or indirectly by the American people.

A recent article by Allison Kasic highlights some of the impacts to the American economy:

• Gross Domestic Product would be reduced by $151 billion to $210 billion by 2020 and between $631 billion to $669 billion per year in 2030.
• Americans would lose 1.2 million to 1.8 million jobs in 2020 and 3 million to 4 million jobs in 2030.
• Household income would be reduced by $739 to $2,927 per year in 2020 and $4,022 to $6,752 per year in 2030.
• Electricity prices would increase by 28% to 33% by 2020 and 101% to 129% by 2030, and gasoline prices would increase  20% to 69% by 2020 and 77% to 145% by 2030.

The household impact is from the direct cost of energy rising.  Do American’s really support paying an extra $700 to $3000 a year to support this bill?  How many people actually know that what this bill means to them? 

Another cost will be passed on the the American tax payer.  The bill itself is carving out over $845 billion to help low income Americans pay energy bills and to subsidize alternative energy.

Some argue that the cost is worth it to stop global warming.  However, in order to accept that you first have to accept that man is causing global warming.  The fact that humans are responsible for only 3% of the the total CO2 emissions passes right by folks and you won’t see the global warming alarmists pointing it out anytime soon either.  The other 97% comes from nature.  People also ignore the fact that the earth has been cooling for the last 10 years.

There is no doubt that we should act in a responsible way where the environment is concerned.  However, knee-jerk political gestures that destroy the American economy are no way to go about it.

Ending the Bush Tax Cuts

(April 9, 2008 ) – Like I was sayin… would a rose by any other name smell as sweet?  Every Democrat member of congress that can get next to a microphone indicates that ending the Bush tax cuts is a top priority for the Democrat lead congress, but what would ending the tax cuts mean to the American people?

First off, you have to determine if you believe that eliminating the tax cuts are a tax increase or not.  Many people would like to pass this off as an “un-lowering” of the taxes.  However, regardless of the definition, the tax rates will rise and all Americans that pay taxes will pay more tax.

In an opinion piece in the WSJ, John F. Cogan and Glenn Hubbard lay out a good case why taxes should not be raised.  Regardless of their case, the facts are staggering.

“The tax code changes enacted in 2001 and 2003 are scheduled to expire at the end of 2010. If they do, statutory marginal tax rates will rise across the board; ranging from a 13% increase for the highest income households to a 50% increase in tax rates faced by lower-income households. The marriage penalty will be reimposed and the child credit cut by $500 per child. The long-term capital gains tax rate will rise by one-third (to 20% from 15%) and the top tax rate on dividends will nearly triple (to 39.6% from 15%). The estate tax will roar back from extinction at the same time, with a top rate of 55% and an exempt amount of only $600,000. Finally, the Alternative Minimum Tax will reach far deeper into the middle class, ensnaring 25 million tax filers in its web.”

Notice some of the details.  A 50% increase in the lowest rates, return of the marriage penalty, and a cut in the child credit of $500.

What this means is that if you are married and you and your spouse make $80,000 combined, you pay more in taxes than a two single people earning $40,000 each.

There is also the reduction of the child credit by $500.  That means that couples that have 2 kids, would owe $1000 more in taxes.

This is often passed off as a way to fix the economy, but does taking more money out of the American people’s pockets boost the economy?  If so, why is congress rushing tax rebates to the American people in May to stimulate the economy?

This is often also passed off as a way to reduce the budget deficit.  However, you can also cut spending and achieve the same result.

Anybody who is for allowing the tax cuts (or tax un-raisings) to expire needs to ask themselves if they really want to pay hundreds or thousands more in taxes.  Many people don’t understand what it means to their finances and will end up hurting themselves in the end.

Rockefeller Apologizes to McCain

(April 8, 2008) – Like I was sayin… some people will say anything.  Sen. Rockefeller (D, WV)  apologized to Sen. McCain for saying that he doesn’t care about the lives of people caught in the wars he champions.

Sen. Rockefeller made his remarks in the Charleston Gazette.

“McCain was a fighter pilot, who dropped laser-guided missiles from 35,000 feet. He was long gone when they hit.

“What happened when they [the missiles] get to the ground? He doesn’t know. You have to care about the lives of people. McCain never gets into those issues.”

There is so much wrong with these statements, you have to wonder what is wrong with Sen. Rockefeller.

First off, in Vietnam, the fighter pilots didn’t drop bombs from 35,000 feet nor did they have laser guided bombs.  The fact that Sen. Rockefeller doesn’t even know what he is talking about should cause anybody to wonder why they should vote for him in the next election.

Secondly, and even more troubling, what message does this send to the men and women who are currently or have served our country in the military.  Are they not fit to be the president because they launched missiles or dropped bombs?  If that is his opinion, then he should come out and say it and not just take cheap shots and McCain.

So not only is Rockefeller clueless as to how wars are fought, but his character comes into question if he doesn’t believe that pilots don’t care about people and therefore can’t be the president.  If that isn’t his opinion, then he is just another politician that is willing to say anything to get elected.

Being the man of conviction that he is, on Tuesday Rockefeller issued an apology:

“I have deep respect for John McCain’s honorable and noble service to our country. I made an inaccurate and wrong analogy and I have extended my sincere apology to him.

“While we differ a great deal on policy issues, I profoundly respect and appreciate his dedication to our country, and I regret my very poor choice of words,” he said.

Notice that he didn’t say that McCain does indeed care for people caught in war, but that he merely used a bad analogy and a poor choice of words.

I can’t imagine that anybody in the military would even think of voting for Rockefeller.

Charleton Heston has Died

(April 6, 2008) – Like I was sayin… get your filthy paws off me you damn dirty ape.  Today it was reported in the news that Charleton Heston has passed away. 

One of my favoriate actors and past NRA president, has died.  Heston won a an Oscar for best actor for Ben-Hur in 1959.

Heston stared in some of my favorite movies including Ben Hur, Moses, Midway, and Planet of the Apes.  He also started in numerous other movies and was a past president of the sceen actors guild.

Heston was 84.